Turning the clock back to
October 2011 when I was one of the 81 rebels who voted for an In–Out EU
referendum I referred during the debate to having attended a Civic Service the
previous day and, even for me, as a confirmed Euro-sceptic who voted to leave in
1975, being surprised at what I described as ‘the real people of England’ when
every person I spoke to was urging me to vote for the referendum; I never had
any doubts that I would do so but their support and encouragement spurred me
on.
The weekend after the recent
county elections I read and listened to more reports and analysis on them than
is good for anyone. Then later, in need of some light relief, I settled down to
watch the ‘Antiques Road Show and couldn't help thinking that here again were
gathered the ‘real people of England’ – loyal, hard-working and, whatever their
voting habits, conservative by nature; many of them would have voted for UKIP –
for most of them that would be a first – the challenge for the Conservative
Party is to make sure it’s the last but with the European elections coming next
year that is going to be extremely difficult. Vote for the same party twice
running and it can easily become habit-forming.
My constituency takes in part
of North & North East Lincolnshire Unitary Councils who had no elections
this year, though in April UKIP secured their second seat in a North East
Lincolnshire by-election – both in seats that more often than not return a Tory
so on 2nd May my centre of attention focussed on the neighbouring Lincolnshire
County Council area where UKIP scored spectacular, but, in the main,
predictable gains.
The area around Boston was
where the most spectacular gains came. These were the predictable ones; with
immigration at the levels they have experienced in recent years. Large cities
can absorb immigrants in a way that small provincial towns can’t. Local public
services struggle, resentment grows.
The public look and see a link
between ‘Europe’ and immigration, ‘Europe’ and the inability to deport known
terrorists and criminals, the link between ‘Europe’ and an obligation to pay
benefits to those who have not contributed. Whether these links are real or
perceived matters not; they are deeply ingrained in the public consciousness.
The Prime Minister has set out
a perfectly logical, sensible way forward, and with an in/out referendum
guaranteed by a future majority Conservative government it should be a good
package to sell to the electorate. The problem is that the public are ahead of
the game and won’t wait for four years. They've been let down once too often.
Leaders of all parties have
got to appreciate that millions of the British people regard our membership of
the EU as being under sufferance with even many of those old enough to have
voted in 1975 feeling resentful that they were deceived into believing it was a
trading arrangement rather than a political project.
The project has developed and
moved on without the people giving their consent; after every new treaty there
should have been a referendum. I rather suspect that we would still be where we
are now but without the widespread resentment that exists.
At the moment the political
momentum is with those who identify with the public, share their frustrations
and identify with so much of what they perceive to be wrong rather than those
seeking to manage the realities of a complex world. In the battle between
charisma and competence charisma is in the lead.
If we are to return David
Cameron to Downing Street in 2015 we need to deliver a referendum or at the
very least set the arrangements into statute. Elvis would say ‘It’s Now or
Never’ perhaps we can’t deliver that but it certainly needs to be sooner rather
than later.
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