Sept 30 2013

With the Party Conference season upon us it’s worth asking what, if any, useful purpose they serve. Those of us actively involved in politics tend to love them or at best have a take-it or leave-it attitude toward them but for the public at large they pass almost unnoticed.

Of course the big speeches will get a fair amount of coverage on the main news bulletins and as a result will, for a short time, linger in the memory. A sound-bite may enter the political language for a generation to come; think of Margaret Thatcher’s ‘you turn if you want to, the lady’s not for turning’ or maybe you can remember Neil Kinnock’s attack on the Militant Tendency but most speeches are just a part, however important, of the process of sending a message about the direction of travel of a Party and makes a contribution to the public perception of the Party and its leading players.

Sometimes, for all the wrong reasons, the conference can produce headlines exactly the opposite of what is wanted. Just ask that colourful character UKIP MEP and party leader Nigel Farage. His fellow MEP Godfrey Bloom completely derailed their gathering. The only message to have emerged was based on Mr Bloom’s comments and behaviour. Mr Bloom is of course one of our own MEPs representing as he does the Yorkshire and Humber region; now of course sitting as an Independent and keeping his options open as to his future. The most interesting feature of the way the story developed is the Party’s reaction. Mr Bloom was, to say the least, acting politically incorrect but the party which claims to be the antidote to political correctness felt they had no choice but to get rid of the problem as soon as possible. So Mr Bloom’s political career, which always seemed destined to end in this way, hits the buffers.

This week the Labour Party is doing its best to appear as an alternative government. After a heavy defeat all parties go through a period of rebuilding, reconsideration of their policies in the light of changed circumstances and eventually emerge as a realistic alternative government. Labour doesn’t, as yet, appear to have achieved that stage. The poll ratings for Ed Miliband are awful and on the key measure of which party is considered best able to manage the economy Labour are miles behind the Conservatives. All of this may suggest that the next General Election is a foregone conclusion. Definitely not; our first-past-the-post system will usually give a clear-cut result when two parties dominate but when a third party – the LibDems – win more than a handful of seats things become more unpredictable – witness the 2010 result. A hung parliament becomes more likely. Add another Party – UKIP, Greens or whoever then things become even more unpredictable. A fourth party may not win any seats, indeed it is extremely unusual, but it can help prouce some very unexpected results.

Mr Miliband decided he had to say something dramatic that would catch a headline and to hope that as it unravelled the public’s interest would have moved on. The choice of energy prices and his proposed freeze has some political mileage since we are all suffering from high energy prices. Partly this is a result of market forces but also partly a result of meeting our obligations to promote renewable power generation most of which were agreed to when the minister was no other than one Ed Miliband.

One of the biggest weaknesses of the announcement was that it could make potential investors think twice. Could there be a Labour government in 2015? If there’s just half a chance then they may hold off making a decision. Last Thursday I attended a meeting of the Hull and Humber Chamber of Commerce and one senior businessman asked me if I thought the Miliband announcement could influence whether or not the Siemens or Able UK development goes ahead. I don’t know the answer but the very fact that it is being asked is perhaps cause for concern.

So when David Cameron, George Osborne and others take to the Conference stage next week what can we expect? Well with the marked improvement in the economy they will be anxious to show that by sticking to their policies the country is now beginning to benefit. Had we adopted a Plan B as Labour has been urging we would not now be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Boris Johnson will appear, amuse and retire back to London leaving us all with a smile on our face but it is the Leader’s speech that will set the tone and clearly indicate how we can build on the foundations that have now been laid. Highlighting how household budgets will benefit from such as the increased tax-free allowances. As the recovery gathers momentum we must be sure that the lower and middle income families are first to benefit.

So listen to the mood music that emerges it will tell us a lot about how the parties are gearing up for the Election and the policies on which it will be fought.