September 4 2014

There’s certainly not been a ‘silly season’ this August with the summer months dominated by news from many of the world’s troublespots, particularly the Middle East and when Parliament returns today there will be an opportunity for ministers to update the House with developments and to debate how to react to a fast-changing state of affairs.

The appalling events in Rotherham then dominated the headlines only to be overtaken, at least for 24 hours, by the bizarre decision of Tory MP Douglas Carswell to quit his seat and join UKIP. Why is this bizarre? Because it will achieve the exact opposite of what he would like to happen. By their own admission UKIP hope to win between three and six seats at the General Election and in our first-past-the-post electoral system that is an ambitious target. Though UKIP are now targeting Labour voters the polling organisations are agreed that it will be the Conservatives that are more likely to suffer if the UKIP vote increases substantially.  The result of which will be an Ed Miliband led government that will not deliver the Euro referendum that many of us have fought for many years to achieve and, with a Tory government, is now set for 2017; and for those who say, wrongly, that we failed to deliver on our last promise I can assure you that the pressure is such within the Conservative Party that there is no possibility of it not going ahead. It will happen; but only with a Conservative government.

The other aspect of Mr Carswell’s decision that has not featured in the recent coverage of the story is that it is bad news for his constituents. At the moment he is part of the Party in government and, as such, can bend the ear of Conservative ministers, have access to the Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer and others who can make decisions that will affect his constituency. All that will disappear, if he wins the by-election he will be a lone voice, shunned by his colleagues and even if he wins in next year’s General Election, and even if joined by two or three others he will have no influence over government policy and decisions whether it be David Cameron or Ed Miliband in Downing Street.

Like many Conservative voters I share some of the aims and aspirations of UKIP but I want the representative for Cleethorpes to have some influence. I’ll give one example; after over twenty years of campaigning this Government wrote off £150 million of debt and halved the tolls on the Humber Bridge. In our first interview days after the last General Election my colleague from Brigg & Goole, Andrew Percy and I committed ourselves to achieving a toll reduction. Countless meetings with the responsible minister, Justine Greening followed, she visited the area and after meetings with campaigners and the business community immediately appreciated the arguments and between us we then convinced the Treasury and Chancellor. The reduction has been hugely beneficial to individuals and businesses. Would ministers had been persuaded to listen and spend an enormous amount of time and energy for the representative of a party with just two or three MPs?

Today the main focus of the campaign to retain through train services between Cleethorpes and Manchester switches back to Westminster. Having persuaded the Chairman of the Transport Select Committee to include the issue in their current review of railway investment and to call the leaders of North and North East Lincolnshire Council as witnesses I'm confident that yet more pressure can be put on the Department of Transport to withdraw this particular option from the list of proposals.